Scenario analysis workspace

PHL Simulate

Compare a baseline with an alternative before anything changes on the floor. The first release offers two deterministic scenario models whose arithmetic you can read, with every assumption written down next to the result.

Status
Two models in first release Available in MVP
Models
S1 threshold replay · S2 cell capacity
Method
Deterministic. No stochastic or physics model yet
Output tag
SCEN
Physics
External validated engines only Future capability

01S2 · Cell capacity model

What happens if the conveyor runs faster?

Change the speed of CNV-001 and watch the bottleneck move to the packer. Every number comes from the formula shown under the table.

SCEN S2 · Cell capacity model · deterministic

Illustrative scenario
%
Baseline versus alternative scenario results
OutputBaseline 100 %Alternative 115 %Change
CNV-001 conveyor rate (units/h)1,2001,380+180
Cell throughput (units/h)1,2001,214+14
Bottleneck station CNV-001PKG-001changed
Packer infeed buffer Not fillingFull in ≈ 43 minchanged
MTR-001 load (linear estimate) (%)6878.2+10.2
  • MTR-001 load ≤ 85 % (assumed limit)78.2 % estimated
  • Packer infeed buffer does not fill within 60 minFull in ≈ 43 min
Calculation and assumptions

throughput = min(1,200 × speed, 1,320 × 0.92) · buffer fill = 120 ÷ surplus · load = 68 % × speed

  • Steady state only: no start-up, changeover or stochastic stoppages.
  • PKG-001 effective rate = rated 1,320 units/h × 92 % planned availability, treated as a constant.
  • CNV-001 rate scales linearly with belt speed from its rated 1,200 units/h.
  • MTR-001 load scales linearly with conveyor speed from its 30-day mean. Not validated for this drive.
  • Packer infeed buffer holds 120 units and starts empty.

Results follow from the model and assumptions listed. This is not a physics simulation and not a validated prediction.

02S1 · Threshold policy replay

Would a lower limit have warned us earlier?

Replay PMP-001’s last 30 days of vibration readings against an alternative warning threshold, using exactly the logic the live rules engine uses.

SCEN S1 · Threshold policy replay · PMP-001 vibration, last 30 days

Illustrative scenario
4.0 mm/s
Replay results for current and alternative thresholds
OutputCurrent 4.5 mm/sAlternative 4.0 mm/s
Alert episodes1618
Total time in alert1 d 23 h5 d 21 h
First alert before the 21 Sep inspection2026-09-18 17:502026-09-15 17:00
Lead time vs current rule—3 d earlier

Replay applies the live rule logic to recorded readings only. 5 h of missing data is excluded. It describes the past; it does not predict future behaviour.

03How a scenario runs

From baseline to a reproducible result.

  1. Pick a model and baseline

    Choose S1 or S2 and the twin version and data window it should use.

  2. Check model requirements

    Pre-run validation lists any missing input, such as a station’s rated rate, and links to where to set it.

  3. Set parameters and constraints

    Parameters are bounded and unit-checked. Accepted defaults are written into the assumptions.

  4. Run and compare

    Baseline and up to three alternatives side by side, with signed deltas and units.

  5. Interpret with limits

    Assumptions and limitations stay visible under every result; nothing is collapsed away.

04Model requirements

Each model needs specific inputs.

Inputs required by each scenario model
ModelNeedsProducesClaim allowed
S1 Threshold replayStored readings for the signal; one or more rule setsAlert episodes, time in alert, lead time vs a reference event“With this history, policy B would have raised N alerts.” Exact, about the past
S2 Cell capacityStation rated rates, availability, buffer sizes, the feeds graph, baseline motor loadThroughput, bottleneck, buffer fill time, linear load estimate“Under the stated assumptions…” Steady-state approximation
Physics modelsValidated engineering models, an external engine, a named model ownerEngine outputs with the engine’s name and validation statusOnly what the engine and its validation support Future capability

05Capabilities and status

Available, planned and future.

Simulate capabilities
CapabilityWhat it doesStatus
Scenario creation from a twin baselineA scenario references a twin version and a data window; it never copies assets.Available in MVP
Parameter adjustmentBounded, unit-checked parameters with the change from baseline marked.Available in MVP
ConstraintsFor example maximum motor load or buffer fill time.Available in MVP
S1 · Threshold policy replayRe-runs the live rule logic over recorded readings.Available in MVP
S2 · Cell capacity modelSteady-state throughput, bottleneck and buffer fill time.Available in MVP
Assumption tracking & run historyEvery run stores inputs, assumptions, model version and an input hash.Available in MVP
Scenario comparison reportsExportable, with limitations stated.Available in MVP
Pump and fan affinity-law estimatesIdealised estimates, labelled as such.Planned
Discrete-event line modelStochastic stoppages and queues; uncertainty only when computed from replications.Planned
Physics-based simulationFEA, CFD or multibody through an external engine with validated models.Future capability
Omniverse / USD scene-linked simulationFor customers with engineering-grade models.Future capability

Bring your industrial systems into clearer view.

Start with a focused equipment workflow and expand toward connected digital twins and industrial simulation as your requirements evolve.

Illustrative demo · no signup · not connected to equipment